Books: Business Planning in Turbulent Times by Said Business Schools Rafael Ramirez

Information overload, rapid change, irreconcilable certitudes and persistent uncertainty are now the experience of many organisations including companies, government departments and NGOs.

The effect of such complexity upon organisations is to increase uncertainty and risk, and the costs of failing to address such turbulence and complexity can be considerable. Instances of the destructive, even catastrophic, consequences of failing to manage such complexity are well documented, from the Iraq and Afghan conflicts; the real impact of climate change as revealed in the Stern report; to the sub-prime mortgage meltdown in the US; and the unexpectedly high cost of raw materials fuelling inflation.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, such turbulence can also present organisations with significant opportunities for growth and development. With sufficient insight and the appropriate responses, organisations can thrive in this context.

Rafael Ramirez, a leading international expert on scenario planning, based at Sad Business School at the University of Oxford, is co-editor of a new book for organisational leaders on how better to address this discontinuous change. His research draws upon the techniques of scenario planning which are used increasingly within the worlds leading organisations to address more effectively an uncertain future and to explore alternative realities.

In a turbulent world, successful leaders are less likely to be those who know where they want to take us, than those who can help us prepare for different circumstances says Rafael Ramirez. Scenarios encourage us to explore what might happen in our context. They are stories constructed to explore what if? in ways that not only illuminate the ever-changing spectrum of possible future contexts, but cast new light on the wisdom of current action. Scenario thinking is a capability to see further and more clearly in a world clouded by complexity, and to build joint understanding and efforts to tackle it. Increasingly, since the events of 9/11, decision-makers have realised how turbulent these times are, and it has become legitimate for senior people to express their inability to control some key uncertainties in their contexts. For all of us involved in strategic planning in turbulent times, scenarios are a valuable approach.

The book - Business Planning in Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios draws upon Dr Ramirezs considerable experience of working with companies around the world to explore their possible futures. At Oxford, he founded the Oxford Scenario Programme, widely regarded as the leading scenario programme for senior managers and leaders. Established in 2004, the programme has helped leaders from more than 100 organisations internationally, from a wide range of backgrounds and sectors, to use scenario thinking and methods to explore possible futures in their particular contexts. Rafael also founded the Oxford Scenarios Masters Class which draws together senior professionals in the scenarios field around the world to explore leading- edge scenario issues.

The book also draws on the Oxford Futures Forum, which the co-editors convened for the first time in 2005. Taking place every three years, the event brings together around 70 futures practitioners and academics to critically reflect on scenario thinking and practice. This, along with his work with the global scenario team at Shell International, has contributed to his insight in this area.

Rafael and his colleagues in Oxford Angela Wilkinson, who wrote the post-script for the book, and Kees van der Heijden, who is an Associate Fellow are undertaking world-leading research on how scenarios work and are also using scenarios as a research methodology to tackle complex issues such as the links between justice and peace; those between energy, water, and food; future vulnerabilities; and how legitimacy may break down or be reinvigorated.

The book is designed for thoughtful managers who want to examine ways of responding to the complexity and uncertainty they face. It shows how scenarios can help develop more confident and robust decisions in turbulent contexts. We wanted to develop a response that is both intellectually rigorous and very practical for the turbulent situations leaders face. Our research team draws upon our collective experience of scenario planning in practice spanning many years - analysing specific case studies to help achieve this. We hope this will be a useful tool for the practitioners who want proactively to engage with the future, said Dr Ramirez.

Rafael Ramirez argues that clarity is an important contribution that scenarios help to muster in the face of turbulence, building on his ground-breaking work on aesthetics carried out in his doctoral studies in social systems science at the Wharton School in the 1980s. This contribution helps scenario work establish joint understanding of possibilities and the building of common ground to address turbulence. He proposes that is a necessary approach in turbulent times.